The Juba-Shebelle River Basin alternates between floods and droughts, threatening local communities. SEED‑FD is developing improved forecasting methods to better detect these extremes in data-scarce regions. ICPAC, an intergovernmental climate service provider for East Africa, delivers early warnings and hydrological forecasts to governments and disaster agencies. Within the research project, ICPAC evaluates how Earth Observation data can enhance predictions, strengthening preparedness and resilience across the region. By integrating successful SEED-FD developments into their climate services, local decision-makers and communities will benefit from improved forecasts for extreme weather events.
A Region Highly Vulnerable to Extreme Weather – The Juba-Shebelle Basin
Spanning nearly 800,000 km² across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, the Juba-Shebelle River Basin is home to nomadic and semi-nomadic communities that rely on seasonal water availability for agriculture and livestock. The region faces extreme weather variability, with devastating floods in the rainy season and prolonged droughts during dry periods. These rapid shifts between extremes severely impact food security, water resources, and infrastructure, displacing thousands and increasing vulnerability to climate change. Reliable forecasting is essential to help communities prepare for and mitigate these risks, but existing early warning systems struggle to provide accurate predictions due to the region’s limited hydrological monitoring infrastructure.
How the Juba-Shebelle Use Case Shapes SEED-FD’s Forecasting Improvements
The Juba-Shebelle Basin is one of the use case regions selected for SEED-FD, a research project dedicated to improving flood and drought forecasting globally. With its rapid shifts between extreme weather conditions and scarce ground-based data, the basin presents a critical challenge – and an opportunity to test innovative solutions. SEED-FD is developing new techniques to enhance early warning systems, refining hydrological models, and integrating Earth Observation data to close existing gaps. After an intensive development phase the project will move into validation, testing these improvements in real-world conditions. The Juba-Shebelle Basin will serve as a proving ground, helping to ensure that SEED-FD’s advancements translate into more accurate, actionable forecasts for regions facing the greatest climate risks.
Testing and Refining SEED-FD’s Advancements – ICPAC’s Contribution
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), an intergovernmental climate service provider based in Kenya and accredited by the World Meteorological Organization, plays a central role in SEED-FD by leading the validation of forecasting improvements in the Juba-Shebelle Basin. As an intermediary user of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) Early Warning System data, ICPAC provides climate services to 11 East African countries, translating global forecasting tools, such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), into actionable early warnings for national and regional authorities. However, in data-scarce regions like Juba-Shebelle, the limited availability of in-situ hydrological measurements reduces the accuracy of these forecasts. SEED-FD addresses these challenges, and ICPAC will assess whether its advancements lead to more reliable predictions.
How Will ICPAC Validate SEED-FD’s Forecasting Advancements?
To evaluate the effectiveness of SEED-FD’s improvements, ICPAC will compare model outputs, such as soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater levels, with real-world data provided by local and regional authorities. By sharing these observations, these institutions contribute to the validation process and, in return, will benefit from more accurate and reliable forecasts in the future. A key focus of this process is determining how well Earth Observation (EO) data from satellites can compensate for the region’s lack of ground-based measurements. With its extensive experience in climate modelling and early warning systems for East Africa, ICPAC has the expertise to define relevant test cases that reflect the region’s alternating flood and drought conditions.
Bridging the Gap Between Science and End Users – Strengthening Climate Resilience
ICPAC serves as a vital connection between scientific forecasting advancements and the decision-makers who rely on them. National governments, disaster management agencies, and water resource planners across East Africa use ICPAC’s climate services to prepare for floods and droughts. If SEED-FD’s improvements prove to enhance forecast accuracy, they will be integrated into operational CEMS systems like GloFAS. As ICPAC incorporates these into its own forecasting services, the benefits will extend to end users, enabling more reliable early warnings and better-informed decision-making.
For communities in the Juba-Shebelle region, where access to water and natural resources is highly dependent on changing weather conditions, improved forecasts can make a critical difference. More precise early warnings will help local populations and authorities better anticipate and respond to extreme weather, reducing the risk of displacement, infrastructure damage, and resource shortages. By strengthening the foundation of climate services, SEED-FD ensures that scientific progress leads to practical benefits, helping both decision-makers and vulnerable communities build greater resilience against floods and droughts.
Conclusion – From Forecasting Improvements to Climate Action
SEED-FD highlights the importance of translating scientific progress into practical benefits for those facing climate risks. Through ICPAC’s validation and integration efforts, improved flood and drought forecasting will support better decision-making for governments, disaster response teams, and local communities. As these advancements become part of operational climate services, they will help build trust in early warning systems and strengthen resilience against extreme weather events in East Africa and beyond.