SEED-FD and CENTAUR are two European research projects tackling the growing threats of climate change. Through strengthening early warning systems and developing crisis indicators that reflect both environmental and social dimensions, the two projects contribute to better global preparedness and response to climate-related risks.
Shared Challenges in a Changing Climate
As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events continue to rise. Floods and droughts are affecting more people worldwide – damaging infrastructure, limiting access to clean water, and threatening food supplies.
These environmental crises often come with serious social consequences. In vulnerable regions, water and food insecurity can become precursors to political instability, forced displacement, and conflict. The ability to anticipate and respond to such crises is more important than ever.
SEED-FD: Improving Flood and Drought Forecasts Worldwide
SEED-FD aims to close critical gaps in global flood and drought forecasting. Building on the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS), it enhances the accuracy and reliability of hydrological forecasts, which are critical for early warnings of floods and droughts.
To achieve this, SEED-FD integrates satellite-based Earth observation and local micro-station data into the hydrological model. In parallel, the project refines the CEMS hydrological model to better represent the global range of hydroclimatic processes – including groundwater flow and wetland impacts. In addition, SEED-FD uses AI methods to enhance extreme event detection and develops new tools to forecast a broader spectrum of flood and drought events.
A key focus of SEED-FD is enhancing CEMS services like the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) and the Global Drought Observatory (GDO). By strengthening its predictive capabilities – especially in data-scarce regions of the Global South – and expanding its portfolio of tools, the project helps ensure that governments, agencies, and communities have access to better tools for decision-making and risk reduction.
CENTAUR: From Crisis Indicators to Early Action
CENTAUR addresses the increasing need to detect and respond to complex crises driven by climate change. The project has developed 33 innovative indicators and 5 indexes to identify early signs of crises events related to urban flooding, as well as with food and water insecurity – especially in regions where these threats can escalate into political instability, conflict, or forced displacement.
By expanding the product portfolio of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) and the Copernicus Security Service – Support to EU External and Security Actions (CSS-SESA), CENTAUR links hazards early warnings with social and geopolitical risk analysis. This integrated approach enables earlier and more targeted responses to emerging risks.
CENTAUR’s approach strengthens the European Union’s ability to respond proactively to emerging threats – providing new ways to monitor conditions and act before crises escalate. This supports more timely interventions, better allocation of resources, and improved protection for vulnerable populations.
Collaboration between SEED-FD and CENTAUR
Though SEED-FD and CENTAUR have different approaches, their goals are closely aligned. Both projects contribute to enhancing the Copernicus services by focusing on different yet interconnected dimensions of climate risks – natural hazards and their social consequences. Together, they offer a more comprehensive understanding of how climate extremes emerge and affect societies.
On 21 May 2025, researchers from both projects met for the second technical exchange focused on drought-related challenges. These ongoing conversations demonstrate the value of sharing knowledge between projects that address overlapping use case regions, such as Juba-Shebelle in SEED-FD and Somalia in CENTAUR.
The collaboration between SEED-FD and CENTAUR shows how cross-project exchange within European research can accelerate progress. By working together, SEED-FD and CENTAUR are creating a more integrated approach to anticipating crises – bridging the gap between scientific forecasting and operational action in response to climate-related risks.
Turning Knowledge into Action – Who Benefits and How?
The impact of these efforts is expected to reach a wide range of stakeholders. For decision-makers and public authorities, better forecasting tools will support more effective risk management strategies. They will enable earlier interventions, support more informed planning, and help prepare for potential crises – reducing damage and protecting lives.
Humanitarian organizations will be able to use the improved forecasts to allocate resources more efficiently, ensuring timely assistance to affected populations. By acting sooner, they will be able to reach vulnerable communities before emergencies escalate.
For businesses and consultants working in sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, or insurance, improved forecasting tools can support more targeted local services and reduce uncertainty. Their integration into existing or emergency early warning systems opens up long-term opportunities for tailored applications.
Local communities stand to benefit from earlier and more reliable warnings made possible through improved forecasting. These alerts will support evacuation planning, help protect homes and infrastructure, and reduce both human and economic losses.
SEED-FD and CENTAUR: A Joint Step Towards Global Resilience
Together, SEED-FD and CENTAUR highlight the value of cross-disciplinary collaboration in addressing the complex impacts of climate change. Their combined efforts strengthen the scientific foundations for earlier, more reliable warnings and help translate knowledge into action across sectors and regions.
As both projects continue to evolve, their contributions will support decision-makers, institutions, and communities in becoming better prepared for climate-related challenges. By improving early warning capabilities and integrating environmental and social risk information, SEED-FD and CENTAUR are building the foundations for a more resilient future.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights on flood and drought forecasting. Check out our video series about SEED-FD, and visit the CENTAUR website to learn more about their research and mission.